A month out, Iowa poised for a political turn

Iowa is setting up for a course correction one month out from the November midterm elections.

The Republicans’ 10-year grip over the state’s politics is slipping. Iowa is aiming to elect a Democratic governor and senator, and probably split our congressional delegation.

Observers from afar blame the eroding GOP position on President Trump and his low approval ratings. For sure, fuel prices are top of mind. Affordability is the word of the hour. Farmers are stressed. The war on Iran is not playing out like they dreamed.

It goes deeper than Trump. Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not running for re-election, has worn out her welcome and is the most unpopular governor in the nation. People are worried to death about cancer. They think their schools have been hijacked by religious radicals. It’s harder than ever to make ends meet.

It sounds like Democrat Rob Sand has a lead over Republican Zach Lahn in the governor’s race. A recent Marist poll puts the spread in the double digits. Lahn surprised the party with an upset of Rep. Randy Feenstra in the June primary. He has not waged a strong general election campaign. Lahn’s running mate, Derek Wulf, is preoccupied fending off farm creditors and angry neighbors. Lahn has not been that visible in Northwest Iowa, where the base is. He was trying to raise funds for five weeks following the primary when he needed to be in Sioux Center.

Sand has been campaigning for more than a year. He attracted large crowds before Trump started his nosedive. Sand found traction criticizing vouchers for private schools and privatizing Medicaid. He argues that the parties lock out real political choices and promote false divisions. He built his name as the only statewide elected Democrat. He is assiduously centrist. Sand portrays his opponent as a disconnected outsider from Kansas, where Lahn was employed by the Koch political operation. Sand looks to be in solid shape.

Trump politics didn’t necessarily set up Sand. Iowans are sick of Reynolds, polluted water and air, book bans, inferior health care, rising property taxes and declining test scores.

If you can believe them, the polls report that Democrat Josh Turek is in a dead heat with Republican Ashley Hinson for the US Senate seat held by Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican. He may have cracked open a lead. If true, it is surprising. Hinson has served in Congress and would assume the seat from a fellow Republican, lending an air of near-incumbency. Iowa likes incumbent Republicans.

Lately, Hinson has attempted to keep her distance from Trump but voted in support of his war on Iran. She did not care to appear with Vice President JD Vance in Council Bluffs before a pitifully small crowd.

If Turek pulls this off, he becomes a star.

Three of the four congressional seats are in play. The Republican registration advantage in the Fourth District would require a blue tsunami for Democrat Dave Dawson to prevail. But even the Republicans around here are off their game. The trade wars are felt acutely in the land of soy and pork exports. Trump is not playing well in Sioux City. Turnout from Western Iowa may not be what the GOP needs to win statewide.

Democrat Chris Jones attracts a lot of attention in his uphill race for secretary of agriculture against incumbent Republican Mike Naig. Jones put clean water squarely in the center of our civic discussions. He decided to run when it looked impossible. He has fed enthusiasm to the party base. It has little to do with Trump. Iowans of all political persuasions worry about polluted air, water and cancer. Rural communities feel the constant pressure of consolidation that has been encouraged under Democrats and Republicans beholden to agribusiness.

Jones, for one, goes so far as to imagine that Democrats could flip the legislature. Attorney General Brenna Bird is running scared against challenger Nate Willems. Who knows?

This was not in the cards a year ago.

It’s the war. It’s diesel prices. It’s nitrate in the river and ammonia in the air. It’s ICE marauders shooting citizens in the streets. It’s a billion-dollar state budget deficit. It’s the feeling that your town could just fizzle away. It’s all those things adding up after all these years.

As Sand says, it’s time to rotate the crops.

Polls have been famously wrong. They had me believing that Kamala Harris would win Iowa when common sense begged to differ. Jim Ross Lightfoot had a big lead on Tom Vilsack going into the final week in the governor’s race and blew it.

Republicans have 200,000 more registered voters than the Democrats. Trump is more popular here than elsewhere, but he is still underwater. People are anxious. That does not help Hinson or Lahn. Voters want something better.

Iowa tends to moderate over time. It feels like the decade of one-party rule is exhausted, none too soon.