Agricultural Outlook

2024-25 Outlook:

Corn:

Based upon the most recent WASDE release (February 11, 2025), USDA did not change to domestic corn or soybean supplies.      Smaller downgrades were made to the South American soybean and corn projections.   The 24-25 season average price for corn was increased 10 cents to $4.35 behind continued stronger corn export sales (continuing better than the 5-year average since October for several buyers, Japan, Mexico, EU, etc.).   The 25-26 new crop season average price is projected at $3.90.   NOTE:  the Iowa new crop operating breakeven (traditional corn/soybeans rotation) is projected at $4.35 per bushel.

Soybeans:

Based upon the most recent WASDE release (February 11, 2025), the 2024/25 season average U.S. soybean price was lowered 10 cents to $10.10.   Export sales are slightly behind the 5-year average with still higher export shifts (away from China to a combination of other increases, e.g. EU, Egypt).   The new crop 25/26 season average price is projected at $10/bushel ($2.40 / bushel lower than 2023 crop year).   NOTE: the Iowa operating breakeven (traditional soybeans on corn) is projected at $11.15 per bushel.

Near-term Economics

With the above operating metrics, low machinery sales are being reported, a continuation of the 2024 crop year slower sales.   January 2025 ag machinery sales (all segments) is below the five-year averages (2020-24).  Uncertainties include global trade concerns, discussion of tariffs and the upcoming farm bill.

DEADLINES:  Mar 15 and April 15, 2025:

Producers will be asked again to decide their 2025 crop insurance choices on/before Mar 15.   Please note the federal farm program (ARC/PLC) decision deadline is April 15 (this is a change!).    This FMS recommends you consult with your crop insurance agent prior to making the federal farm bill decision.

AgDM tools are available to assist the analysis.

Due to another extension the last-approved 5-year farm bill (from December, 20, 2018) was approved to now cover the new crop 2025 crop year.    Producers should be properly informed of the smaller adjustments with this extension.   

Succession Planning:

State of Iowa producer and landowner aging continues from the 12 percent increase to 65+ year olds from 2017 to 2022.    Succession (where the existing operation in part/all is successfully continued) planning workshops continue to be offered in NW Iowa by ISUEO, and others

If the farm has “legacy” value (with it having been in the family for 4-5 generations), families, starting principally with the patriarchs and/or the matriarchs, are asked to evaluate three key long-term questions:  (a) where/how is the farm organized now; (b) what is the end goal; and (c) how to get it there, e.g. trusts, corporations, etc.   In all respects planning early can pay dividends to all, especially when making succession planning decisions (vs. estate planning decisions associated with wills, probate, etc.).

Campus experts and field specialists planning efforts continue toward “Estate and Succession Planning for the the Farm.”   In-person workshops are being planned for September and December, 2025 which will include videos and a workbook.    Dates and locations will be coming!